# 1 million American kids get SpaceX shares by December 31, 2027?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "1 million American kids get SpaceX shares by December 31, 2027?". Yes leads at 71.5%. $2K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-05T22:53:03Z (4 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2028
- Volume traded: $2K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: ai_tech

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Yes | 71.5% | 71.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

On October 19, 2026, Elon Musk announced that next year he would give one of his SpaceX shares to every child in America. (see: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/19/elon-musk-spacex-shares-giveaway-kids.html)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one million children in the United States have received at least one share of SpaceX stock from Elon Musk by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "child" is any individual who is under 18 years of age and resides in the United States on the date the share is received. A child who turns 18 after receiving a share will continue to count.

A child will be considered to have "received" a share once at least one whole share has been transferred to and is held by or for the benefit of that child, including in a brokerage account, custodial account (such as a UTMA/UGMA account), or trust in the child's name or for the child's benefit. Announcements, pledges, registrations, sign-ups, or allocations of shares that have not yet been transferred will not qualify. Fractional shares, tokenized shares, or other synthetic exposure to SpaceX will not qualify.

Shares will be considered to be "from Elon Musk" if they are distributed by Elon Musk personally or by any person or legal entity acting on his behalf or at his direction, or funded by him for this purpose, including a trust, foundation, SpaceX itself, or another company or third-party administrator implementing the distribution. Shares distributed under a program that was not initiated or funded by Elon Musk will not qualify.

The equity must be in Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SpaceX). Any class or type of equity will qualify, including preferred or common stock.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/1-million-american-kids-get-spacex-shares-by-december-31-2027
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/1-million-american-kids-get-spacex-shares-by-december-31-2027?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/1-million-american-kids-get-spacex-shares-by-december-31-2027

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.