# 120th Congress: Who will get a vote for Speaker?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "120th Congress: Who will get a vote for Speaker?". Yes leads at 95.8%. Next is Ayanna Pressley at 37%. $17K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-13T23:42:31Z (18 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Feb 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $17K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Yes | 95.8% | 95.8% | — | not on both |
| Ayanna Pressley | 37% | — | 37% | not on both |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 14% | — | 14% | not on both |
| Rashida Tlaib | 12% | — | 12% | not on both |
| Bernie Sanders | 7% | — | 7% | not on both |
| Steve Scalise | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Mike Johnson | 4.5% | — | 4.5% | not on both |
| Thomas Massie | 3.5% | — | 3.5% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives](https://clerk.house.gov/Votes), [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/), [the Associated Press](https://apnews.com/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/120th-congress-who-will-get-a-vote-for-speaker
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-120th-congress-speaker-be-elected-on-the-first-ballot?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxspeaker120vote?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/120th-congress-who-will-get-a-vote-for-speaker

---
Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.