# 120th Congress: Who will run for House Democratic leader?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "120th Congress: Who will run for House Democratic leader?". Katherine Clark leads at 17%. Next is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 12%. $4K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-05T23:16:03Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $4K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Katherine Clark | 17% | 17% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 12% | 12% |
| Joe Neguse | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| Pete Aguilar | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| Pramila Jayapal | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| Rashida Tlaib | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| Ted Lieu | 3.5% | 3.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/), [the Associated Press](https://apnews.com/), [Bloomberg News](https://www.bloomberg.com/).

## Settlement rules

Kalshi event status: open

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/120th-congress-who-will-run-for-house-democratic-leader
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhousedemleadrun?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/120th-congress-who-will-run-for-house-democratic-leader

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.