# 120th Congress: Will Jeffries be elected Speaker on the first ballot?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "120th Congress: Will Jeffries be elected Speaker on the first ballot?". Yes leads at 92.3%. $12K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-06T21:48:03Z (19 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Feb 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $12K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Yes | 92.3% | 93% | 90% | 3.0 pts |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives](https://clerk.house.gov/Votes).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/120th-congress-will-jeffries-be-elected-speaker-on-the-first-ballot
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-120th-congress-speaker-be-elected-on-the-first-ballot?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjeffriesfirst?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/120th-congress-will-jeffries-be-elected-speaker-on-the-first-ballot

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.