# #2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of November 2?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "#2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of November 2?". OpenAI leads at 95.8%. Next is Anthropic at 0.7%. $7K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 10, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:14:00Z (2 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 10, 2026
- Volume traded: $7K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: ai_tech

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| OpenAI | 95.8% | 98.4% |
| Anthropic | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| Google | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Meta | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| Z.ai | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| DeepSeek | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| xAI | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Qwen | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| MiniMax | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Nvidia | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Tencent | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Xiaomi | 0.2% | 0.2% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [openrouter.ai](https://openrouter.ai/rankings).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the second highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of November 2 to November 8, 2026.

A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of November 2 to November 8, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used.

This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of November 2 to November 8, 2026 once the figures for the week of November 9, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of November 9, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on November 13, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of November 2 to November 8, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of November 2 to November 8, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other".

The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 2nd after applying this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/2-ai-lab-by-openrouter-market-share-week-of-november-2
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/2nd-ai-lab-by-openrouter-market-share-week-of-november-2?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/2-ai-lab-by-openrouter-market-share-week-of-november-2

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.