# #2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of November 9?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "#2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of November 9?". Above 10.5% leads at 99%. Next is OpenAI at 97.4%. $24K has traded across 39 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 17, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-10T12:47:05Z (1 d ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 17, 2026
- Volume traded: $24K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: ai_tech

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 10.5% | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| OpenAI | 97.4% | 97.4% | — | not on both |
| Above 13.8% | 95% | — | 95% | not on both |
| Above 12.3% | 92% | — | 92% | not on both |
| Above 14.3% | 91% | — | 91% | not on both |
| Above 17.4% | 90% | — | 90% | not on both |
| Above 19.6% | 88% | — | 88% | not on both |
| Above 5.4% | 87% | — | 87% | not on both |
| Above 13.2% | 83% | — | 83% | not on both |
| Above 18.2% | 78% | — | 78% | not on both |
| Above 5.6% | 73% | — | 73% | not on both |
| Above 5.7% | 55% | — | 55% | not on both |
| Above 18.6% | 54.5% | — | 54.5% | not on both |
| Above 4.8% | 50% | — | 50% | not on both |
| Above 5.1% | 50% | — | 50% | not on both |
| Above 5.3% | 50% | — | 50% | not on both |
| Above 6.3% | 50% | — | 50% | not on both |
| Above 18.1% | 48.5% | — | 48.5% | not on both |
| Above 5.8% | 42% | — | 42% | not on both |
| Above 6.0% | 40% | — | 40% | not on both |
| Above 19.1% | 40% | — | 40% | not on both |
| Above 18.9% | 33.5% | — | 33.5% | not on both |
| Above 19.4% | 33% | — | 33% | not on both |
| Above 14.9% | 26% | — | 26% | not on both |
| Above 20.0% | 26% | — | 26% | not on both |
| Above 16.3% | 18.5% | — | 18.5% | not on both |
| Above 15.5% | 14% | — | 14% | not on both |
| Above 20.8% | 10% | — | 10% | not on both |
| Z.ai | 2.3% | 2.3% | — | not on both |
| DeepSeek | 1.7% | 1.7% | — | not on both |
| Google | 0.8% | 0.8% | — | not on both |
| Anthropic | 0.3% | 0.3% | — | not on both |
| Meta | 0.3% | 0.3% | — | not on both |
| MiniMax | 0.3% | 0.3% | — | not on both |
| Nvidia | 0.3% | 0.3% | — | not on both |
| Qwen | 0.3% | 0.3% | — | not on both |
| Tencent | 0.3% | 0.3% | — | not on both |
| xAI | 0.3% | 0.3% | — | not on both |
| Xiaomi | 0.3% | 0.3% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [openrouter.ai](https://openrouter.ai/rankings).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [OpenRouter - AI Market Share](https://openrouter.ai/rankings#market-share).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the second highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of November 9 to November 15, 2026.

A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of November 9 to November 15, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used.

This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of November 9 to November 15, 2026 once the figures for the week of November 16, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of November 16, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on November 20, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of November 9 to November 15, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of November 9 to November 15, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other".

The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 2nd after applying this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/2-ai-lab-by-openrouter-market-share-week-of-november-9
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/2nd-ai-lab-by-openrouter-market-share-week-of-november-9?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxanthshare?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/2-ai-lab-by-openrouter-market-share-week-of-november-9

---
Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.