# #2 Spotify Artist in November?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "#2 Spotify Artist in November?". Rihanna leads at 49%. Next is Taylor Swift at 43%. $143K has traded across 22 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 30, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:12:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 30, 2026
- Volume traded: $143K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: culture

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Rihanna | 49% | 49% | — | not on both |
| Taylor Swift | 43% | 0.1% | 18% | — |
| Drake | 25.8% | 0.1% | 75% | — |
| The Weeknd | 15% | 53% | 2% | — |
| Ella Langley | 8% | — | 8% | not on both |
| Morgan Wallen | 7.8% | — | 2% | not on both |
| BTS | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Olivia Rodrigo | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Bruno Mars | 1.8% | 0.4% | 1% | — |
| Bad Bunny | 1.5% | 0.1% | 3% | — |
| Justin Bieber | 1.5% | 0.1% | 2% | 1.9 pts |
| Kendrick Lamar | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Beyoncé | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Chappell Roan | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Noah Kahan | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Michael Jackson | 0.5% | 0.1% | 1% | — |
| Ariana Grande | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Billie Eilish | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Coldplay | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Ed Sheeran | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Lady Gaga | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Shakira | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Spotify](https://newsroom.spotify.com/).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the listed artist with the second-greatest number of monthly listeners according to Spotify on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

The monthly listener count is listed on each artist's public Spotify profile. Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not count towards the featured artist's total.

In the event of an exact tie for the number of monthly listeners, this market will resolve in favor of the listed artist whose name comes first in alphabetical order.

If Spotify is down at the listed time on the listed date, this market will resolve based on the most recent available data.

The resolution source for this market will be Spotify.

This market and these products have not been endorsed by Spotify. Any references to Spotify, Spotify charts, streaming data, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Spotify and Polymarket. Spotify and related marks are the property of Spotify AB and its group companies.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/2-spotify-artist-in-november
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/2-spotify-artist-in-november-20261130?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtopartistrunnerupusa?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/2-spotify-artist-in-november

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.