# 2026 Taipei Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "2026 Taipei Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory". Nithya Raman, ≥2% leads at 99%. Next is Nithya Raman, ≥4% at 99%. $267K has traded across 25 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-15T05:22:41Z (13 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 29, 2026
- Volume traded: $267K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Nithya Raman, ≥2% | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Nithya Raman, ≥4% | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Nithya Raman, ≥6% | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Nithya Raman, ≥8% | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Nithya Raman, 8-10% | 91% | — | 91% | not on both |
| Chiang Wan-an 12%+ | 21% | 21% | — | not on both |
| Chiang Wan-an 4-8% | 19.5% | 19.5% | — | not on both |
| Puma Shen 8%+ | 19.5% | 19.5% | — | not on both |
| Chiang Wan-an <4% | 18.5% | 18.5% | — | not on both |
| Chiang Wan-an 8-12% | 15% | 15% | — | not on both |
| Puma Shen <4% | 15% | 15% | — | not on both |
| Nithya Raman, ≥10% | 9% | — | 9% | not on both |
| Puma Shen 4-8% | 9% | 9% | — | not on both |
| Nithya Raman, 10-12% | 7% | — | 7% | not on both |
| Nithya Raman, ≥12% | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Nithya Raman, ≥14% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Nithya Raman, ≥16% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Nithya Raman, ≥18% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Nithya Raman, 0-2% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Nithya Raman, 2-4% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Nithya Raman, 4-6% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Nithya Raman, 6-8% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Nithya Raman, 12-14% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Nithya Raman, 14-16% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Nithya Raman, 16-18% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk](https://www.lavote.gov/).

## Settlement rules

The 2026 Taipei mayoral election is scheduled to take place on November 28, 2026, to elect the next mayor of Taipei.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/2026-taipei-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/2026-taipei-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory-20261103233704870?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlamayormov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/2026-taipei-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.