# 2026 Taiwanese Mayoral Elections: Party Winner: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "2026 Taiwanese Mayoral Elections: Party Winner". Kuomintang (KMT) leads at 55.6%. Next is Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) at 39.4%. $1K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-12T09:53:05Z (12 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 29, 2026
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Kuomintang (KMT) | 55.6% | 48% |
| Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) | 39.4% | 34% |
| Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) | 5% | 4.3% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. 

This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most mayoral elections for Taiwan’s special municipalities and cities during these elections.

A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.

Taiwan’s local governments include the following cities and special municipalities:

Cities/special municipalities (mayoral elections): Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Taichung City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Keelung City, Hsinchu City, Chiayi City

Only elections for the listed cities or special municipalities will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.

In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant mayoral elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.

Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections aren’t known by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/2026-taiwanese-mayoral-elections-party-winner
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/2026-taiwanese-mayoral-elections-party-winner-20261103233705422?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/2026-taiwanese-mayoral-elections-party-winner

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.