# 2027 Nobel Peace Prize winner: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "2027 Nobel Peace Prize winner". Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms leads at 8.1%. Next is Yulia Navalnaya at 7.3%. $278K has traded across 29 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:06:00Z (6 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 31, 2027
- Volume traded: $278K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | 8.1% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 2.3 pts |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 7.3% | 11% | 5% | 6.0 pts |
| Committee to Protect Journalists | 6.5% | 10% | 4.3% | 5.7 pts |
| Jimmy Lai | 6.5% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 7.2 pts |
| Pope Leo XIV | 6.2% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 2.0 pts |
| Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya | 6.2% | 10% | 3.2% | 6.8 pts |
| Melania Trump | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6% | 0.3 pts |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 5.1% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 4.6 pts |
| Donald Trump | 4.9% | 8.5% | 1.5% | 7.0 pts |
| International Criminal Court | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5% | 1.2 pts |
| UNRWA | 4.1% | 7% | 1.4% | 5.6 pts |
| Julian Assange | 3.7% | 6.2% | 1.7% | 4.5 pts |
| Elon Musk | 3.1% | 3% | 4.9% | 1.9 pts |
| International Court of Justice | 2.8% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 2.3 pts |
| Doctors Without Borders | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 0.4 pts |
| Francesca Albanese | 2.1% | — | 1.7% | not on both |
| Mykola Kuleba / Save Ukraine | 2% | — | 1.6% | not on both |
| World Health Organization | 2% | — | 1.6% | not on both |
| António Guterres | 1.8% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 2.1 pts |
| Save the Children | 1.8% | — | 1.5% | not on both |
| Reporters Without Borders (RSF) | 1.6% | — | 1.3% | not on both |
| Greta Thunberg | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.1 pts |
| Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue | 1.4% | — | 1.2% | not on both |
| David Attenborough | 1.4% | — | 1.2% | not on both |
| Imran Khan | 1.4% | — | 1.2% | not on both |
| Minneapolis | 1.4% | — | 1.2% | not on both |
| Parents Circle – Families Forum | 1.4% | — | 1.1% | not on both |
| Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | 1.4% | — | 1.2% | not on both |
| Vanessa Nakate | 1.3% | — | 1.1% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Nobel Prize organization](https://www.nobelprize.org/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/2027-nobel-peace-prize-winner
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2027?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnobelpeace?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/2027-nobel-peace-prize-winner

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.