# 2029 S&P 500 change × 2028 winner: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "2029 S&P 500 change × 2028 winner". Party: Republican, S&P 500 change: 0% to 10% leads at 17.1%. Next is Party: Republican, S&P 500 change: 10% to 20% at 17.1%. $2K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2029.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-13T09:49:42Z (12 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 31, 2029
- Volume traded: $2K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Party: Republican, S&P 500 change: 0% to 10% | 17.1% | 15.5% |
| Party: Republican, S&P 500 change: 10% to 20% | 17.1% | 15.5% |
| Party: Republican, S&P 500 change: 20% or above | 17.1% | 15.5% |
| Party: Republican, S&P 500 change: 10% to 20% | 9.2% | 8.4% |
| Party: Republican, S&P 500 change: 20% or above | 8.7% | 7.9% |
| Party: Republican, S&P 500 change: -10% to 0% | 7% | 6.4% |
| Party: Republican, S&P 500 change: 0% to 10% | 6.5% | 5.9% |
| Party: Republican, S&P 500 change: Below -10% | 6.5% | 5.9% |
| Party: Republican, S&P 500 change: -10% to 0% | 5.4% | 4.9% |
| Party: Republican, S&P 500 change: Below -10% | 5.4% | 4.9% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [S&P Dow Jones Indices](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/#overview), [Office of the Presidency](https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/executive-office-of-the-president/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/2029-sp-500-change-2028-winner
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxinxpartycombo?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/2029-sp-500-change-2028-winner

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.