# 2030 Brazil Presidential election winner? (Party): prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "2030 Brazil Presidential election winner? (Party)". PT leads at 35.7%. Next is PL at 26.2%. $8K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2031.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:22:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Oct 27, 2031
- Volume traded: $8K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| PT | 35.7% | 30% |
| PL | 26.2% | 22% |
| Republicanos | 23.8% | 20% |
| PSD | 5.9% | 5% |
| PSB | 3.6% | 3% |
| Missão | 2.4% | 2% |
| NOVO | 2.4% | 2% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)](https://www.tse.jus.br).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/2030-brazil-presidential-election-winner-party
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbrazilpresparty?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/2030-brazil-presidential-election-winner-party

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.