# Alabama's 4th District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Alabama's 4th District margin of victory". Aderholt, 45+ pts leads at 97.9%. Next is Aderholt, 48+ pts at 97.4%. $44K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:07:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $44K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Aderholt, 45+ pts | 97.9% | — | 97.9% | not on both |
| Aderholt, 48+ pts | 97.4% | — | 97.4% | not on both |
| Republican 50-55% | 49.7% | 49.7% | — | not on both |
| Republican 45-50% | 45.4% | 45.4% | — | not on both |
| Republican 70-75% | 5.7% | 5.7% | — | not on both |
| Aderholt, 51+ pts | 4.8% | — | 4.8% | not on both |
| Republican 35-45% | 3.1% | 3.1% | — | not on both |
| Republican 60-65% | 2.9% | 2.9% | — | not on both |
| Republican 65-70% | 2.7% | 2.7% | — | not on both |
| Aderholt, 54+ pts | 2.2% | — | 2.2% | not on both |
| Republican 55-60% | 1.5% | 1.5% | — | not on both |
| Aderholt, 57+ pts | 1.3% | — | 1.3% | not on both |
| Aderholt, 60+ pts | 1.3% | — | 1.3% | not on both |
| Republican 0-35% | 1.2% | 1.2% | — | not on both |
| Aderholt, 69+ pts | 1.1% | — | 1.1% | not on both |
| Aderholt, 63+ pts | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Aderholt, 66+ pts | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Republican 75%+ | 1% | 1% | — | not on both |
| Democrat Wins | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Alabama Secretary of State](https://www.sos.alabama.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/alabamas-4th-district-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/al-04-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/alabamas-4th-district-margin-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.