# Alaska Senate margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Alaska Senate margin of victory". Mary Peltola, 0-3% leads at 60%. Next is Peltola 0-3% at 55.9%. $276K has traded across 30 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:17:00Z (2 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $276K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Mary Peltola, 0-3% | 60% | — | 60% | not on both |
| Peltola 0-3% | 55.9% | 55.9% | — | not on both |
| Mary Peltola, 2+ pts | 44% | — | 44% | not on both |
| Peltola 3-6% | 18.5% | 18.5% | — | not on both |
| Peltola 9-12% | 18.4% | 18.4% | — | not on both |
| Mary Peltola, 3-6% | 13% | — | 13% | not on both |
| Sullivan 0-3% | 11.9% | 11.9% | — | not on both |
| Mary Peltola, 4+ pts | 10% | — | 10% | not on both |
| Dan Sullivan, 0-3% | 8% | — | 8% | not on both |
| Peltola 6-9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | — | not on both |
| Sullivan 3-6% | 3.3% | 3.3% | — | not on both |
| Mary Peltola, 6-9% | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| Mary Peltola, 6+ pts | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Dan Sullivan, 4+ pts | 1.9% | — | 1.9% | not on both |
| Dan Sullivan, 2+ pts | 1.5% | — | 1.5% | not on both |
| Dan Sullivan, 6+ pts | 1.4% | — | 1.4% | not on both |
| Dan Sullivan, 8+ pts | 1.4% | — | 1.4% | not on both |
| Peltola 12+% | 1.1% | 1.1% | — | not on both |
| Dan Sullivan, ≥12% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Dan Sullivan, 3-6% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Dan Sullivan, 6-9% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Dan Sullivan, 9-12% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Dan Sullivan, 10+ pts | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Mary Peltola, ≥12% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Mary Peltola, 9-12% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Mary Peltola, 8+ pts | 0.8% | — | 0.8% | not on both |
| Sullivan 6-9% | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| Sullivan 12+% | 0.4% | 0.4% | — | not on both |
| Mary Peltola, 10+ pts | 0.3% | — | 0.3% | not on both |
| Sullivan 9-12% | 0.3% | 0.3% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Alaska Division of Elections](https://www.elections.alaska.gov/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/alaska-senate-margin-of-victory-1
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/alaska-senate-election-margin-of-victory-final-round?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/alaska-senate-margin-of-victory-1

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.