# Aleksandar Vučić arrested by...?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Aleksandar Vučić arrested by...?". December 31, 2026 leads at 21%. Next is November 30, 2026 at 8.5%. $6K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-08T18:10:00Z (1 d ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $6K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| December 31, 2026 | 21% | 21% |
| November 30, 2026 | 8.5% | 8.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Aleksandar Vučić is arrested or detained by law enforcement by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/aleksandar-vučić-arrested-by
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/aleksandar-vucic-arrested-byptptpt?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/aleksandar-vučić-arrested-by

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.