# Anthropic IPO Date: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Anthropic IPO Date". Before Apr 1, 2027 leads at 96%. Next is Before Mar 1, 2027 at 93%. $4.4M has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 14, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:00:00Z (58 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 14, 2026
- Volume traded: $4.4M
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: ai_tech

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 96% | — | 96% | not on both |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 93% | — | 93% | not on both |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 91% | — | 91% | not on both |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 88% | — | 88% | not on both |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 80% | — | 80% | not on both |
| November 20 | 22.5% | 22.5% | — | not on both |
| November 19 | 19.5% | 19.5% | — | not on both |
| No IPO by November 30, 2026 | 17% | 17% | — | not on both |
| Before Nov 16, 2026 | 12% | — | 12% | not on both |
| November 18 | 10.5% | 10.5% | — | not on both |
| November 24 | 10.4% | 10.4% | — | not on both |
| November 23 | 8.4% | 8.4% | — | not on both |
| November 17 | 6.3% | 6.3% | — | not on both |
| November 25 | 4.2% | 4.2% | — | not on both |
| November 16 | 2.3% | 2.3% | — | not on both |
| November 13 or earlier | 1% | 1% | — | not on both |
| November 30 | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| November 27 | 0.3% | 0.3% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [the New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com), [ABC](https://abcnews.go.com/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve based on the date, in Eastern Time, that Anthropic launches its Initial Public Offering (IPO).

An IPO refers to the first public sale of shares by the listed company on a recognized stock exchange.

If no IPO occurs by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by November 30, 2026".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official listing page of the relevant exchange; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/anthropic-ipo-date
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-ipo-date?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxipoanthropic?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/anthropic-ipo-date

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.