# AP calls the Alaska Senate race by...?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "AP calls the Alaska Senate race by...?". Before Jan 4 leads at 97%. Next is November 30 at 96%. $13K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 16, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-09T11:25:20Z (2 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 16, 2026
- Volume traded: $13K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Before Jan 4 | 97% | — | 97% | not on both |
| November 30 | 96% | 96% | — | not on both |
| Before Nov 26 | 91% | — | 91% | not on both |
| November 22 | 91% | 91% | — | not on both |
| Before Nov 19 | 89% | — | 89% | not on both |
| Before Nov 18 | 25% | — | 25% | not on both |
| Before Nov 14 | 16% | — | 16% | not on both |
| November 15 | 16% | 16% | — | not on both |
| Before Nov 11 | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [apnews.com](https://apnews.com).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [the Associated Press](https://apnews.com/).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Associated Press (AP) calls the winner of the 2026 United States Senate general election in Alaska between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A call refers to the AP publicly declaring a winner of the race. A call for any candidate will qualify. Calls, projections, or declarations by any other news organization, or certification of results by the State of Alaska, will not qualify. A call made within the specified window will qualify even if it is later retracted.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/ap-calls-the-alaska-senate-race-by
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ap-calls-the-alaska-senate-race?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxapcallaksen?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/ap-calls-the-alaska-senate-race-by

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.