# Arctic sea ice max in winter 2026–2027: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Arctic sea ice max in winter 2026–2027". Above 13.8 million sq km leads at 96.5%. Next is Above 13.9 million sq km at 96%. $2K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 2, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-14T02:44:31Z (14 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Apr 2, 2027
- Volume traded: $2K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: climate

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Above 13.8 million sq km | 96.5% | 96.5% |
| Above 13.9 million sq km | 96% | 96% |
| Above 14.0 million sq km | 94.5% | 94.5% |
| Above 14.1 million sq km | 92% | 92% |
| Above 14.2 million sq km | 87% | 87% |
| Above 14.3 million sq km | 79% | 79% |
| Above 14.4 million sq km | 58% | 58% |
| Above 14.6 million sq km | 41% | 41% |
| Above 14.8 million sq km | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Above 15.0 million sq km | 4% | 4% |
| Above 15.2 million sq km | 3% | 3% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [National Snow & Ice Data Center](https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/data-and-image-archive).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/arctic-sea-ice-max-in-winter-20262027
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxarcticicemax?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/arctic-sea-ice-max-in-winter-20262027

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.