# Arizona Democratic Senate nominee? (2028): prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Arizona Democratic Senate nominee? (2028)". Mark Kelly leads at 61.2%. Next is Greg Stanton at 10%. $1K has traded across 6 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-12T22:49:25Z (12 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 7, 2028
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Mark Kelly | 61.2% | 64% |
| Greg Stanton | 10% | 10.5% |
| Kris Mayes | 9.5% | 10% |
| Yassamin Ansari | 7.1% | 7.5% |
| Adrian Fontes | 6.5% | 6.8% |
| JoAnna Mendoza | 5.7% | 6% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Arizona Democratic Party](https://azdem.org/), [Associated Press](https://apnews.com), [Decision Desk HQ](https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/arizona-democratic-senate-nominee-2028
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxsenatenom?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/arizona-democratic-senate-nominee-2028

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.