# Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova: Set 1 Winner: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova: Set 1 Winner". WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova leads at 64.5%. Next is WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova at 61.5%. $28K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 23, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-09T17:11:20Z (1 d ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 23, 2026
- Volume traded: $28K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova | 64.5% | 64.5% | — | not on both |
| WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova | 61.5% | 61.5% | — | not on both |
| Aryna Sabalenka | 61% | — | 61% | not on both |
| WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova | 61% | 61% | — | not on both |
| WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova | 60% | 60% | — | not on both |
| WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova | 55.5% | 55.5% | — | not on both |
| WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova | 52% | 52% | — | not on both |
| Completed Match | 51.5% | 51.5% | — | not on both |
| WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova | 46.5% | 46.5% | — | not on both |
| WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova | 43.5% | 43.5% | — | not on both |
| WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova | 40.5% | 40.5% | — | not on both |
| Karolina Muchova | 38% | — | 38% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [wtatennis.com](https://www.wtatennis.com/scores).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [WTA](https://www.wtatennis.com/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/aryna-sabalenka-vs-karolina-muchova-set-1-winner
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/wta-sabalen-muchova-2026-11-09?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxwtasetwinner?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/aryna-sabalenka-vs-karolina-muchova-set-1-winner

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.