# ATP Paris Winner: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "ATP Paris Winner". Carlos Alcaraz leads at 41.5%. Next is Ben Shelton at 12.2%. $50K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 12, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:00:00Z (1 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 12, 2026
- Volume traded: $50K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 41.5% | 51% |
| Ben Shelton | 12.2% | 15% |
| Tommy Paul | 8.1% | 10% |
| Lorenzo Musetti | 6.5% | 8% |
| Arthur Fils | 5.7% | 7% |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | 4.1% | 5% |
| Taylor Fritz | 4.1% | 5% |
| Casper Ruud | 2.5% | 3% |
| Nuno Borges | 2.1% | 2.5% |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | 2% | 2.5% |
| Flavio Cobolli | 1.6% | 2% |
| Quentin Halys | 1.6% | 2% |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 1.6% | 2% |
| Ugo Humbert | 1.6% | 2% |
| Alex Michelsen | 0.8% | 1% |
| Alex Molcan | 0.8% | 1% |
| Arthur Rinderknech | 0.8% | 1% |
| Ignacio Buse | 0.8% | 1% |
| Rinky Hijikata | 0.8% | 1% |
| Tomas Machac | 0.8% | 1% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [ESPN](https://www.espn.com), [Fox Sports](https://www.foxsports.com), [ATP](https://www.atptour.com/).

## Settlement rules

Kalshi event status: open

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/atp-paris-winner
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxatp?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/atp-paris-winner

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.