# ATP World Tour Finals, Ivan Lendl Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Frances Tiafoe: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "ATP World Tour Finals, Ivan Lendl Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Frances Tiafoe". Alcaraz leads at 87.9%. Next is ATP World Tour Finals, Ivan Lendl Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Frances Tiafoe Set Handicap +/-1.5 at 79.5%. $3K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 23, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-15T05:22:41Z (14 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 23, 2026
- Volume traded: $3K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Alcaraz | 87.9% | 87.5% | 88% | 0.5 pts |
| ATP World Tour Finals, Ivan Lendl Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Frances Tiafoe Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 79.5% | 79.5% | — | not on both |
| ATP World Tour Finals, Ivan Lendl Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Frances Tiafoe Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 63% | 63% | — | not on both |
| ATP World Tour Finals, Ivan Lendl Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Frances Tiafoe Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| ATP World Tour Finals, Ivan Lendl Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Frances Tiafoe Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 49.5% | 49.5% | — | not on both |
| ATP World Tour Finals, Ivan Lendl Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Frances Tiafoe Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 41.5% | 41.5% | — | not on both |
| ATP World Tour Finals, Ivan Lendl Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Frances Tiafoe Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 34.5% | 34.5% | — | not on both |
| ATP World Tour Finals, Ivan Lendl Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Frances Tiafoe Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 31.5% | 31.5% | — | not on both |
| ATP World Tour Finals, Ivan Lendl Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Frances Tiafoe Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 24% | 24% | — | not on both |
| Frances Tiafoe | 12% | — | 12% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [atptour.com](https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [ATP](https://www.atptour.com/).

## Settlement rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Frances Tiafoe in the ATP World Tour Finals, Ivan Lendl Group, originally scheduled for November 16, 2026 at 8:00AM ET.

This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Frances Tiafoe.

This market will resolve to 'Frances Tiafoe' if Frances Tiafoe advances against Carlos Alcaraz.

If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.

If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/atp-world-tour-finals-ivan-lendl-group-carlos-alcaraz-vs-frances-tiafoe
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/atp-alcaraz-tiafoe-2026-11-16?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxatpmatch?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/atp-world-tour-finals-ivan-lendl-group-carlos-alcaraz-vs-frances-tiafoe

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.