# Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of November?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of November?". 25-29 leads at 41.4%. Next is 30-34 at 35.8%. $1K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-05T04:16:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 25-29 | 41.4% | 41% |
| 30-34 | 35.8% | 35.5% |
| 20 | 8.1% | 8% |
| 35+ | 8.1% | 8% |
| 20-24 | 6.6% | 6.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: IMF PortWatch.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for November 30, 2026.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. This market will resolve based on the whole-number value published by the resolution source for the specified date. Any more granular or unrounded values will not be considered; if the value is presented with decimals in any format, it will be rounded to the nearest whole number, with .5 rounded up.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/avg-of-ships-transiting-bab-el-mandeb-strait-end-of-november
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/avgpt-of-ships-transiting-bab-el-mandeb-strait-end-of-november?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/avg-of-ships-transiting-bab-el-mandeb-strait-end-of-november

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.