# Balearic Islands regional election winner?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Balearic Islands regional election winner?". PP leads at 71.8%. Next is PSIB-PSOE at 12%. $9K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by May 22, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-05T02:59:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: May 22, 2028
- Volume traded: $9K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PP | 71.8% | 83.5% | 82% | 1.5 pts |
| PSIB-PSOE | 12% | — | 14% | not on both |
| PSOE | 8.7% | 10% | — | not on both |
| Vox | 4% | 3.4% | 6% | 2.7 pts |
| Podemos | 2% | 2.3% | — | not on both |
| Broad Front (FA) | 1.5% | 1.8% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Junta Electoral de les Illes Balears](https://www.caib.es/eboibfront/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/balearic-islands-regional-election-winner
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/spain-general-election-balearic-islands-winner?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbalearic?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/balearic-islands-regional-election-winner

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.