# Ballon d'Or 2026: Lamine Yamal or Lionel Messi to finish higher?: prediction market odds

> Final prediction market prices for "Ballon d'Or 2026: Lamine Yamal or Lionel Messi to finish higher?". $1K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jan 1, 2027.

- Status: Trading has ended; prices are final
- Prices updated: unknown
- Closed: Jan 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yamal" if Lamine Yamal finishes higher than Lionel Messi in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. This market will resolve to "Messi" if Lionel Messi finishes higher than Lamine Yamal.

The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026.

If both players are given the same placement in the official ranking, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the official placements of both players have not been published within this timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or ranking; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/ballon-dor-2026-lamine-yamal-or-lionel-messi-to-finish-higher
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-2026-lamine-yamal-or-lionel-messi-to-finish-higher?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/ballon-dor-2026-lamine-yamal-or-lionel-messi-to-finish-higher

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.