# Ballon d'Or Winner 2027: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Ballon d'Or Winner 2027". Kylian Mbappe leads at 25.8%. Next is Lamine Yamal at 25.6%. $14K has traded across 80 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-03T08:48:21Z (1 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2028
- Volume traded: $14K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: culture

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Kylian Mbappe | 25.8% | 23% | 34% | 11.0 pts |
| Lamine Yamal | 25.6% | 25.5% | 26% | 0.5 pts |
| Harry Kane | 15.7% | 7.8% | 33% | 25.2 pts |
| Raphinha | 13.8% | 10% | 25% | 15.0 pts |
| Cole Palmer | 9% | — | 9% | not on both |
| Michael Olise | 7.9% | 8.9% | 5% | 3.8 pts |
| Erling Haaland | 5.4% | 6.9% | 1% | 5.9 pts |
| Desire Doue | 4.4% | 5.5% | 1% | 4.5 pts |
| Jude Bellingham | 2.5% | 4.5% | 0.5% | 4.0 pts |
| Declan Rice | 2.3% | 4.2% | 0.5% | 3.7 pts |
| Ousmane Dembele | 2.2% | 3.9% | 0.5% | 3.4 pts |
| Vitinha | 2.1% | 3.7% | 0.5% | 3.2 pts |
| Julian Alvarez | 1.6% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 2.2 pts |
| Rodri | 1.5% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 2.0 pts |
| Bukayo Saka | 1.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 1.3 pts |
| Fabian Ruiz | 1.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 1.1 pts |
| William Saliba | 1.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 1.1 pts |
| Alexander Isak | 1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 1.0 pts |
| Luis Diaz | 1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 1.0 pts |
| Marc Cucurella | 1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 1.0 pts |
| Bruno Fernandes | 1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 1.0 pts |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 1.0 pts |
| Mohamed Salah | 1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 1.0 pts |
| Alisson Becker | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 1.0 pts |
| Achraf Hakimi | 1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.9 pts |
| Joao Neves | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.8 pts |
| Lautaro Martinez | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.8 pts |
| Lionel Messi | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1 pts |
| Arda Guler | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Bradley Barcola | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Dani Olmo | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| David Raya | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Dayot Upamecano | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Emiliano Martinez | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Endrick | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Enzo Fernandez | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Estevao | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Federico Valverde | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Ferran Torres | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |

Showing the top 40 of 80 outcomes. 
"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [France Football](https://www.francefootball.fr/), [MSNBC](https://www.msnbc.com/), [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the Ballon d'Or award for the 2027 Ballon d'Or.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by France Football and UEFA rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve to "Other".

If the 2027 Ballon d'Or is cancelled, postponed after March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/ballon-dor-winner-2027
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner-2027?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxballondor?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/ballon-dor-winner-2027

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.