# Bank of Canada Decision in March?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Bank of Canada Decision in March?". No Change leads at 47%. Next is 25 bps increase at 29.3%. $8K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:19:00Z (3 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Mar 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $8K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| No Change | 47% | 38.5% |
| 25 bps increase | 29.3% | 24% |
| 25 bps decrease | 17.7% | 14.5% |
| 50+ bps decrease | 5.5% | 4.5% |
| 50+ bps increase | 0.5% | 0.4% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [bankofcanada.ca](https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the March 2027 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.

The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its March 2027 interest rate announcement, scheduled for March 3, 2027, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its March 2027 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued. 

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. 

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.

If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement.  If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/bank-of-canada-decision-in-march-1
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-canada-decision-in-march-2027?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/bank-of-canada-decision-in-march-1

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.