# Bank of Russia rate decision in December: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Bank of Russia rate decision in December". No change leads at 75.3%. Next is 25 bps decrease at 17.8%. $42K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 18, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-03T08:46:21Z (5 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 18, 2026
- Volume traded: $42K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: economics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| No change | 75.3% | 76% | 72% | 4.0 pts |
| 25 bps decrease | 17.8% | 17% | 20% | 3.0 pts |
| 25 bps increase | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3% | 0.5 pts |
| 50+ bps increase | 1.8% | 1.1% | 4% | 2.9 pts |
| 50+ bps decrease | 1.7% | 1.4% | 3% | 1.7 pts |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [cbr.ru](https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Bank of Russia](https://cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/KeyRate/), [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/interest-rate).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/bank-of-russia-rate-decision-in-december
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-russia-decision-in-december?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionrussia?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/bank-of-russia-rate-decision-in-december

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.