# Berrettini vs Alcaraz: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Berrettini vs Alcaraz". Carlos Alcaraz leads at 83%. Next is Rolex Paris Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz Game Spread +/-4.5 at 62.5%. $35K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 19, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-05T03:02:00Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 19, 2026
- Volume traded: $35K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 83% | — | 83% | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz Game Spread +/-4.5 | 62.5% | 62.5% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz Game Spread +/-4.5 | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz Game Spread +/-4.5 | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz Game Spread +/-4.5 | 49% | 49% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz Game Spread +/-4.5 | 49% | 49% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz Game Spread +/-4.5 | 49% | 49% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz Game Spread +/-4.5 | 49% | 49% | — | not on both |
| Completed Match | 48% | 48% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz Game Spread +/-4.5 | 48% | 48% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz Game Spread +/-4.5 | 46.5% | 46.5% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz Game Spread +/-4.5 | 41.5% | 41.5% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz Game Spread +/-4.5 | 41% | 41% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz Game Spread +/-4.5 | 31% | 31% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz Game Spread +/-4.5 | 29.5% | 29.5% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz Game Spread +/-4.5 | 23% | 23% | — | not on both |
| Berrettini | 20.4% | 21.5% | 17% | 4.5 pts |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [atptour.com](https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [ATP](https://www.atptour.com/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/berrettini-vs-alcaraz
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/atp-berrett-alcaraz-2026-11-05?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxatpmatch?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/berrettini-vs-alcaraz

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.