# Best AI model on November 16?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Best AI model on November 16?". gemini-4-carbon-high leads at 91.6%. Next is gemini-4-argon-high at 4.5%. $2K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 17, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:12:00Z (59 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 17, 2026
- Volume traded: $2K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: ai_tech

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| gemini-4-carbon-high | 91.6% | 77% |
| gemini-4-argon-high | 4.5% | 3.8% |
| claude-opus-5.5-high | 3.9% | 3.3% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.

Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.

No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “gemini-4-argon-high” would be ranked ahead of “gemini-4-carbon-high”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/best-ai-model-on-november-16
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/best-ai-model-on-november-16?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/best-ai-model-on-november-16

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.