# Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule: Method of Victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule: Method of Victory". Ends before Round 3? leads at 74%. Next is Bilal Hasan by KO/TKO/DQ at 73%. $85K has traded across 26 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-13T22:11:31Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 29, 2026
- Volume traded: $85K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Ends before Round 3? | 74% | 74% | — | not on both |
| Bilal Hasan by KO/TKO/DQ | 73% | — | 73% | not on both |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 69.5% | 69.5% | — | not on both |
| Hasan to win by KO/TKO? | 65.5% | 65.5% | — | not on both |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 64% | 64% | — | not on both |
| Ends before Round 2? | 48% | 48% | — | not on both |
| Hasan in Round 1 | 44% | 44% | — | not on both |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 41.5% | 41.5% | — | not on both |
| Hasan in Round 2 | 34% | 34% | — | not on both |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 32% | 32% | — | not on both |
| Decision or Draw | 30% | 30% | — | not on both |
| Fight won by decision? | 29.5% | 29.5% | — | not on both |
| Fight won by submission? | 27% | 27% | — | not on both |
| Hasan in Round 3 | 27% | 27% | — | not on both |
| Gurule in Round 1 | 26.5% | 26.5% | — | not on both |
| Gurule in Round 2 | 26.5% | 26.5% | — | not on both |
| Gurule in Round 3 | 26.5% | 26.5% | — | not on both |
| Gurule to win by KO/TKO? | 26.5% | 26.5% | — | not on both |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 16% | 16% | — | not on both |
| Luis Gurule vs. Bilal Hasan | 11.5% | 11.5% | — | not on both |
| Bilal Hasan by Decision | 11% | — | 11% | not on both |
| Luis Gurule by KO/TKO/DQ | 7% | — | 7% | not on both |
| Bilal Hasan by Submission | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Luis Gurule by Decision | 4% | — | 4% | not on both |
| Luis Gurule by Submission | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| Draw/No Contest | 1.5% | — | 1.5% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [ufc.com](https://www.ufc.com/events).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [ESPN](https://www.espn.com), [Fox Sports](https://www.foxsports.com), [Paramount+](https://www.paramountplus.com/home/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/bilal-hasan-vs-luis-gurule-method-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-lui12-bhasan-2026-11-14?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxufcmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/bilal-hasan-vs-luis-gurule-method-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.