# Billboard 200 #1 Album Week of November 14: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Billboard 200 #1 Album Week of November 14". You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo leads at 31.5%. Next is Housewife at 6%. $35K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 11, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:28:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 11, 2026
- Volume traded: $35K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: culture

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo | 31.5% | 31.5% | — | not on both |
| Housewife | 6% | — | 6% | not on both |
| Patient Zero | 4% | — | 4% | not on both |
| Thriller | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| Dandelion - Ella Langley | 2.7% | 2.7% | — | not on both |
| Perfecth - Queens of the Stone Age | 2.7% | 2.7% | — | not on both |
| Press Play - LISA | 2.7% | 2.7% | — | not on both |
| The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore - Taylor Swift | 2.7% | 2.7% | — | not on both |
| Young Manhood & Other Donatable Organs - Zach Bryan | 2.7% | 2.7% | — | not on both |
| HABIBTI (FOMO) - Drake | 1.9% | 1.9% | — | not on both |
| Boston | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Nicole Kidman | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Billboard](https://www.billboard.com).

## Settlement rules

Billboard updates the Billboard 200 albums chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then dated “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”.

This market will resolve according to the number 1 album on the Billboard 200 chart dated “Week of November 14, 2026”. Albums will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more albums are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the albums' listed titles. This market will resolve to the album that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard 200 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be the Billboard 200 chart for the specified week, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/) or through other official Billboard channels.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/billboard-200-1-album-week-of-november-14
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/billboard-200-1-album-week-of-november-14?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxranklist1song?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/billboard-200-1-album-week-of-november-14

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.