# Billboard Hot 100 #1: November: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Billboard Hot 100 #1: November". You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo leads at 31.5%. Next is Housewife at 6%. $35K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 28, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:08:00Z (3 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 28, 2026
- Volume traded: $35K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: culture

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo | 31.5% | 31.5% | — | not on both |
| Housewife | 6% | — | 6% | not on both |
| Patient Zero | 4% | — | 4% | not on both |
| Thriller | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| Dandelion - Ella Langley | 2.7% | 2.7% | — | not on both |
| Perfecth - Queens of the Stone Age | 2.7% | 2.7% | — | not on both |
| Press Play - LISA | 2.7% | 2.7% | — | not on both |
| The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore - Taylor Swift | 2.7% | 2.7% | — | not on both |
| Young Manhood & Other Donatable Organs - Zach Bryan | 2.7% | 2.7% | — | not on both |
| HABIBTI (FOMO) - Drake | 1.9% | 1.9% | — | not on both |
| Boston | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Nicole Kidman | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Billboard](https://www.billboard.com).

## Settlement rules

Kalshi event status: open

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/billboard-hot-100-1-november
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/billboard-200-1-album-week-of-november-14?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxranklist1song?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/billboard-hot-100-1-november

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.