# Billboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of November 14: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Billboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of November 14". Choosin' Texas leads at 81.2%. Next is Dracula at 2%. $7K has traded across 28 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 11, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-03T08:51:21Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 11, 2026
- Volume traded: $7K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Choosin' Texas | 81.2% | 99.2% | 27% | 72.2 pts |
| Dracula | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| HOUSEWIFE | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1% | 0.1 pts |
| Babydoll | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| BbY WOW | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| BE HER | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Been By Now | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Boston | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Disturbia | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Earrings | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Ghostbusters | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| hate that i made you love me | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| I Just Might | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| JADED | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| LOVING LIFE AGAIN | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Midnight Sun | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Monster Mash | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Nicole Kidman | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Psycho Killer | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Risk It All | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Somebody's Watching Me | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Spooky, Scary Skeletons | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| stupid song | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| This Is Halloween | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Lies | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1% | 0.8 pts |
| expectations | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1% | 0.8 pts |
| Thriller | 0.4% | 0.2% | 1% | 0.9 pts |
| Patient Zero | 0.4% | 0.2% | 1% | 0.9 pts |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Billboard](https://www.billboard.com).

## Settlement rules

Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”.

This market will resolve according to the number 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of November 14, 2026”. Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/billboard-hot-100-1-song-week-of-november-14
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/billboard-hot-100-1-song-week-of-november-14?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtopsong?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/billboard-hot-100-1-song-week-of-november-14

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.