# Billboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of November 21: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Billboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of November 21". Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley leads at 94.4%. Next is Housewife - Tate McRae at 1.1%. $3K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 17, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-11T04:13:05Z (8 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 17, 2026
- Volume traded: $3K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley | 94.4% | 96.9% |
| Housewife - Tate McRae | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| Boston - Stella Lefty | 1% | 1% |
| Lies - Zach Bryan feat. Lana Del Rey | 1% | 1% |
| Take Me Home (4 Christmas) - Olivia Rodrigo | 1% | 1% |
| Been by Now - Morgan Wallen | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| Expectations - Olivia Rodrigo & Chappell Roan | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| Patient Zero - Taylor Swift | 0.5% | 0.6% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”.

This market will resolve according to the number 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of November 21, 2026”. Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/billboard-hot-100-1-song-week-of-november-21
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/billboard-hot-100-1-song-week-of-november-21?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/billboard-hot-100-1-song-week-of-november-21

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.