# Brantford—Brant South By-Election Winner: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Brantford—Brant South By-Election Winner". Joy O'Donnell leads at 63%. Next is Liberal at 46%. $5K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 7, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-05T12:53:00Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 7, 2026
- Volume traded: $5K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Joy O'Donnell | 63% | 63% | — | not on both |
| Liberal | 46% | — | 46% | not on both |
| Conservative | 24% | — | 24% | not on both |
| Kevin Davis | 23.5% | 23.5% | — | not on both |
| Dave Carroll | 17% | 17% | — | not on both |
| NDP | 3.5% | — | 3.5% | not on both |
| Green | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| Brad Ward | 3% | 3% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Elections Canada](https://www.elections.ca/).

## Settlement rules

A by-election for the Canadian federal electoral district of Brantford—Brant South is currently scheduled to be held on December 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Brantford—Brant South by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/brantfordbrant-south-by-election-winner
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/brantfordbrant-south-by-election-winner-1793634149133?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbrantfordby?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/brantfordbrant-south-by-election-winner

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.