# California's 22nd District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "California's 22nd District margin of victory". Villegas, 1+ pts leads at 98.1%. Next is Villegas, 4+ pts at 96.8%. $2K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:19:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $2K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Villegas, 1+ pts | 98.1% | 98.1% |
| Villegas, 4+ pts | 96.8% | 96.8% |
| Villegas, 7+ pts | 96.3% | 96.3% |
| Villegas, 10+ pts | 96.3% | 96.3% |
| Villegas, 13+ pts | 96.3% | 96.3% |
| Villegas, 16+ pts | 95.6% | 95.6% |
| Villegas, 19+ pts | 88.5% | 88.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [California Secretary of State](https://www.sos.ca.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/californias-22nd-district-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/californias-22nd-district-margin-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.