# California's 23rd District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "California's 23rd District margin of victory". Obernolte, 2+ pts leads at 82%. Next is Obernolte, 5+ pts at 74%. $1K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:25:00Z (2 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Obernolte, 2+ pts | 82% | 82% |
| Obernolte, 5+ pts | 74% | 74% |
| Obernolte, 8+ pts | 67% | 67% |
| Obernolte, 14+ pts | 45% | 45% |
| Obernolte, 11+ pts | 41% | 41% |
| Obernolte, 20+ pts | 41% | 41% |
| Obernolte, 23+ pts | 41% | 41% |
| Obernolte, 26+ pts | 41% | 41% |
| Obernolte, 17+ pts | 30% | 30% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [California Secretary of State](https://www.sos.ca.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/californias-23rd-district-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/californias-23rd-district-margin-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.