# California's 4th District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "California's 4th District margin of victory". Mike Thompson, 1+ pts leads at 8%. Next is Mike Thompson, 5+ pts at 6%. $2K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:45:00Z (37 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $2K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Mike Thompson, 1+ pts | 8% | 8% |
| Mike Thompson, 5+ pts | 6% | 6% |
| Mike Thompson, 10+ pts | 3.1% | 3.1% |
| Mike Thompson, 20+ pts | 2% | 2% |
| Mike Thompson, 15+ pts | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Mike Thompson, 25+ pts | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| Mike Thompson, 30+ pts | 1.5% | 1.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [the California Secretary of State](https://www.sos.ca.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/californias-4th-district-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/californias-4th-district-margin-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.