# Canada GDP: September 2026 (MoM): prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Canada GDP: September 2026 (MoM)". Above $2.1 trillion leads at 98%. Next is Above $2.2 trillion at 95%. $10K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 30, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:07:00Z (1 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 30, 2026
- Volume traded: $10K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: economics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above $2.1 trillion | 98% | — | 98% | not on both |
| Above $2.2 trillion | 95% | — | 95% | not on both |
| Above $2.3 trillion | 95% | — | 95% | not on both |
| Above $2.4 trillion | 88% | — | 88% | not on both |
| 0.2 to -0.1% | 49.5% | 49.5% | — | not on both |
| Above $2.5 trillion | 35% | — | 35% | not on both |
| 0.0 to 0.1% | 22.5% | 22.5% | — | not on both |
| 0.2% | 16.5% | 16.5% | — | not on both |
| 0.2 to 0.3% | 16% | 16% | — | not on both |
| 0.6%+ | 10.5% | 10.5% | — | not on both |
| Above $2.6 trillion | 8% | — | 8% | not on both |
| Above $2.7 trillion | 7% | — | 7% | not on both |
| Above $2.8 trillion | 7% | — | 7% | not on both |
| Above $3.1 trillion | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Above $3.2 trillion | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| 0.4 to 0.5% | 5% | 5% | — | not on both |
| Above $2.9 trillion | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Above $3.0 trillion | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [www150.statcan.gc.ca](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/gdp).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending September 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for September 2026, scheduled for release on November 30, 2026.

The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm

If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/canada-gdp-september-2026-mom
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/canada-gdp-september-2026-mom?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgdpnom?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/canada-gdp-september-2026-mom

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.