# Central Bank of Chile decision in December: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Central Bank of Chile decision in December". No change leads at 49.8%. Next is 25 bps increase at 42.2%. $37K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 15, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:50:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 15, 2026
- Volume traded: $37K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: economics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| No change | 49.8% | 47.5% | 50% | 2.5 pts |
| 25 bps increase | 42.2% | 49.5% | 37% | 12.5 pts |
| 50+ bps increase | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5% | 1.5 pts |
| 50+ bps decrease | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2% | 0.2 pts |
| 25 bps decrease | 1.6% | 0.3% | 5% | 4.7 pts |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [bcentral.cl](https://www.bcentral.cl/es/web/banco-central/noticias-y-publicaciones/prensa/calendario-de-politica-monetaria-y-financie).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/chile/interest-rate), [Central Bank of Chile](https://www.bcentral.cl/en/areas/monetary-politics/monetary-policy-meeting-rpm).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Chile (Banco Central de Chile), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Chile, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 15, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Chile calendar (https://www.bcentral.cl/es/web/banco-central/noticias-y-publicaciones/prensa/calendario-de-politica-monetaria-y-financiera). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Chile resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.

If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/central-bank-of-chile-decision-in-december
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/central-bank-of-chile-decision-in-december-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdchile?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/central-bank-of-chile-decision-in-december

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.