# Central Bank of Chile Decision in January?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Central Bank of Chile Decision in January?". 50+ bps decrease leads at 39%. Next is 25 bps decrease at 36%. $1K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 26, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-13T07:10:40Z (3 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 26, 2027
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: economics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 50+ bps decrease | 39% | 39% |
| 25 bps decrease | 36% | 36% |
| 50+ bps increase | 36% | 36% |
| 25 bps increase | 35% | 35% |
| No Change | 32.5% | 32.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [bcentral.cl](https://www.bcentral.cl/es/web/banco-central/noticias-y-publicaciones/prensa/calendario-de-politica-monetaria-y-financie).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy rate resulting from the January 2027 meeting of the Central Bank of Chile (Banco Central de Chile), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Chile, including the statement or release from its January 2027 meeting, scheduled for January 26, 2027, as listed on the official Central Bank of Chile calendar (https://www.bcentral.cl/es/web/banco-central/noticias-y-publicaciones/prensa/calendario-de-politica-monetaria-y-financiera). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Chile resulting from its January 2027 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.

If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/central-bank-of-chile-decision-in-january
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/central-bank-of-chile-decision-in-january-2027?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/central-bank-of-chile-decision-in-january

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.