# Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October". Above 0.30 leads at 91%. Next is Above -0.20 at 81.5%. $2K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 23, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:10:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 23, 2026
- Volume traded: $2K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: economics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Above 0.30 | 91% | 91% |
| Above -0.20 | 81.5% | 81.5% |
| Above -0.10 | 63% | 63% |
| Above 0.00 | 44.5% | 44.5% |
| Above -0.10 | 29% | 29% |
| Above -0.20 | 15% | 15% |
| Above 0.30 | 8% | 8% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - CFNAI](https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/cfnai/current-data).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/chicago-fed-national-activity-index-for-october
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcfnai?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/chicago-fed-national-activity-index-for-october

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.