# Chile rate decision in December: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Chile rate decision in December". No change leads at 70.9%. Next is 25 bps increase at 19%. $19K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 15, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-03T08:48:21Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 15, 2026
- Volume traded: $19K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: economics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| No change | 70.9% | 66% | 69% | 3.0 pts |
| 25 bps increase | 19% | 18.5% | 18% | 0.5 pts |
| 50+ bps increase | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5% | 2.2 pts |
| 50+ bps decrease | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1% | 0.8 pts |
| 25 bps decrease | 1.6% | 0.8% | 4% | 3.3 pts |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [bcentral.cl](https://www.bcentral.cl/es/web/banco-central/noticias-y-publicaciones/prensa/calendario-de-politica-monetaria-y-financie).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/chile/interest-rate), [Central Bank of Chile](https://www.bcentral.cl/en/areas/monetary-politics/monetary-policy-meeting-rpm).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/chile-rate-decision-in-december
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/central-bank-of-chile-decision-in-december-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdchile?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/chile-rate-decision-in-december

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.