# China ballistic missile launch by December 31?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "China ballistic missile launch by December 31?". Yes leads at 7%. $3K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-15T05:21:41Z (13 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $3K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Yes | 7% | 7% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.

Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.

The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/china-ballistic-missile-launch-by-december-31-1
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/china-ballistic-missile-launch-by-december-31-20261113?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/china-ballistic-missile-launch-by-december-31-1

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.