# Closer Senate Race: Alaska or Texas?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Closer Senate Race: Alaska or Texas?". Alaska US Senate leads at 95%. Next is Yes at 61.9%. $11K has traded across 3 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 7, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-06T01:09:03Z (49 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 7, 2026
- Volume traded: $11K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Alaska US Senate | 95% | — | 95% | not on both |
| Yes | 61.9% | 61.9% | — | not on both |
| Texas US Senate | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Alaska Division of Elections](https://www.elections.alaska.gov/), [Texas Secretary of State](https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/index.shtml).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/closer-senate-race-alaska-or-texas-1
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/closer-senate-race-alaska-or-texas?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcloseraktxsen?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/closer-senate-race-alaska-or-texas-1

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.