# Closer Senate Race: Florida or South Carolina?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Closer Senate Race: Florida or South Carolina?". Florida US Senate leads at 98%. Next is Yes at 90%. $8K has traded across 3 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:25:00Z (2 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 4, 2026
- Volume traded: $8K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Florida US Senate | 98% | — | 98% | not on both |
| Yes | 90% | 90% | — | not on both |
| South Carolina US Senate | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Florida Division of Elections](https://results.elections.myflorida.com/), [South Carolina Election Commission](https://www.scvotes.gov/).

## Settlement rules

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Florida" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Florida has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the South Carolina Senate election.

This market will resolve to "South Carolina" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in South Carolina has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Florida Senate election.

If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market.

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/closer-senate-race-florida-or-south-carolina-1
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/closer-senate-race-florida-or-south-carolina?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcloserflscsen?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/closer-senate-race-florida-or-south-carolina-1

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.