# Core CPI YoY - November 2026: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Core CPI YoY - November 2026". 2.9% leads at 31.7%. Next is 2.8% at 28.4%. $13K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 10, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-13T03:13:40Z (13 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 10, 2026
- Volume traded: $13K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: economics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2.9% | 31.7% | 33.5% | 30% | 3.5 pts |
| 2.8% | 28.4% | 27.5% | 29% | 1.5 pts |
| 3.0% | 20.9% | 23.5% | 20% | 3.5 pts |
| 2.7% | 11.3% | 8% | 13% | 5.0 pts |
| 3.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7% | 0.5 pts |
| Exactly 2.2% | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Exactly 3.2% | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Exactly 3.3% | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Exactly 3.4% | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Exactly 3.5% | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Exactly 3.6% | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Exactly 3.7% | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| 2.6% | 4.2% | 4% | 5% | 1.0 pts |
| Exactly 2.3% | 4% | — | 4% | not on both |
| 2.4% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 4% | 3.4 pts |
| 2.5% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 4% | 3.4 pts |
| 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | — | not on both |
| 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [bls.gov](https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm).

## Settlement rules

This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending November 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in November 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for November 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on December 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.

If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/core-cpi-yoy-november-2026
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/core-cpi-yoy-november-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeconstatcorecpiyoy?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/core-cpi-yoy-november-2026

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.