# Core PCE MoM - October 2026: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Core PCE MoM - October 2026". Above 0.0% leads at 92%. Next is Above 0.1% at 83%. $5K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 25, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:59:00Z (2 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 25, 2026
- Volume traded: $5K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 0.0% | 92% | — | 92% | not on both |
| Above 0.1% | 83% | — | 83% | not on both |
| Above 0.2% | 58% | — | 58% | not on both |
| 0.2% | 34.5% | 34.5% | — | not on both |
| 0.1% | 24% | 24% | — | not on both |
| 0.3% | 23% | 23% | — | not on both |
| 0.4% | 22% | 22% | — | not on both |
| 0.6%+ | 15% | 15% | — | not on both |
| Above 0.3% | 12% | — | 12% | not on both |
| 0.0% | 9.5% | 9.5% | — | not on both |
| Above 0.4% | 8% | — | 8% | not on both |
| 0.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income).

## Settlement rules

This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending October 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in October 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for October 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on November 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure (the PCE price index excluding food and energy), not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.

If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/core-pce-mom-october-2026
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/core-pce-mom-october-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpcecore?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/core-pce-mom-october-2026

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.