# Danielle Smith out as Premier of Alberta by...?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Danielle Smith out as Premier of Alberta by...?". March 31 leads at 22%. Next is December 31 at 13%. $2K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:06:00Z (10 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $2K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| March 31 | 22% | 22% |
| December 31 | 13% | 13% |
| November 30 | 4.3% | 4.3% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Danielle Smith's departure as Premier of Alberta is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The departure will be considered to be announced when Danielle Smith, the Government of Alberta, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Smith has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Premier of Alberta. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.

Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify).

Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify.

The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.

If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.

If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Danielle Smith and the Government of Alberta; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/danielle-smith-out-as-premier-of-alberta-by
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/danielle-smith-out-as-premier-of-alberta-by?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/danielle-smith-out-as-premier-of-alberta-by

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.